Bumper elections for TV news: Political cliffhanger raises stakes for higher ad spends

Counting day of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has left everyone – be it poll analysts, the common people, all political parties, news channels, print media, social media – in shock. Predictions of every exit poll fell flat as the results had an altogether different narrative.

While the NDA secured 292 wins, which is well above the 272 wins required to form a majority government, it fell much below the “Ab ke baar 400 paar” mark that the BJP had been touting throughout the election campaigning. With this, Narendra Modi is set to return for third term as the Prime Minister.

But what has shocked everyone is the performance of the opposition INDIA alliance, which beat every prediction, most expectations and every exit poll. INDIA alliance’s finally wins tally is 234.

Counting day on June 4, 2024 began early on news television at 6 am. By 8 am, there were claims by different news channels about leading the viewership charts, even as the political drama unfolded on different media platforms.

The long election period, followed by slew of exit poll analyses across news channels, culminating in the counting day finale – news television has had a bumper time in terms of revenue and viewership as the see-saw battle continued for the political parties in the fray. The coming days will see enhanced interest, with television being the biggest draw. Far from the predictions of a one-sided sweep by the NDA, the vote counting saw the fates of several political bigwigs sealed – the final tally? As many as 13 Union ministers lost the poll battle.

Needless to say, the coming days will see tremendous interest from the viewers (and advertisers) in the lead up to the government formation, oath taking, appointment of ministers, portfolio distribution, the opposition’s strategy and formation of key alliances – already JDU’s Nitish Kumar and TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu are being touted as ‘kingmakers’.

All these will be keenly followed over the next few days as the political drama will pan 24x7, giving News channels the opportunity to increase their viewership share, which also means that advertiser interest in TV news will also remain high.

Industry Speak

Adgully spoke to a cross-section of Industry leaders to gauge how a cliffhanger of a verdict has given news channels a chance to up their revenue game and possibly gain more in terms of ad rates and strategic deals.

As noted by Subranshu Singh, Chief Marketing Officer of CVBU at Tata Motors, “Democracy in India is about massive participation and a real on-ground involvement. Naturally, news has a major role in communicating the results. It is a major aggregation of viewership and presents opportunities to advertisers. We must celebrate the mass interest in elections per se and result day in particular.”

Lloyd Mathias, Angel Investor and Business Strategist, observed, “Against all predictions, the 2024 Lok Sabha poll result diverged from the exit polls conducted three days prior, which had anticipated a landslide. However, there was a consensus until about a week ago that the NDA would win, albeit with a smaller margin. This discrepancy increased focus on news television, which was already bolstered by the five state polls in November-December 2023. The prolonged election period – from the announcement of dates to the seven-phase polling – ensured sustained attention on news channels, attracting advertisers.”

“Elections are the biggest eyeball catchers for news channels and they had gone all out to get advertising revenue from brands. Yes, the expectations were defined by exit polls and there was a rush from brands to be a part of the event,” said Naresh Gupta, Founder & Managing Partner, Bang In The Middle.

According to Gupta, results not going along expected lines maybe a good thing from a viewership perspective. “The political action now will be alive for a few more days, news channels will have stories that people would want to consume. The swearing-in ceremony would be watched possibly by a higher number. I think the brands will remain invested for a little longer than expected,” he added.

Amit Sethia, Head of Marketing, Syska Group, pointed out, “Whether it was about witnessing the much-anticipated NDA win with huge margin or about beholding the tough competition given by opposition in the current election, TV news has strategically balanced the streaming of conversations from political experts about justifying their predictive win, but also beaming with the possible emergence of new and unexpected winners creating shock-value for the audience who were constantly glued to the medium while getting entertained by the biggest dance of democracy.”

“Any programming content which has ability to hold audience for longer duration always brings rating, followed by revenue to broadcaster, same for this year’s Lok Sabha elections result, where audience glued to screen morning to evening,” remarked Yatnesh Pandey, VP – Marketing, GreenPly.

Ad spend & viewership gains

There were differing views on advertising spending during the post-poll period.

While Shubho Sengupta, Marketing Consultant, saw low or medium spends in the next few weeks, with marketing remaining a bit subdued, he added, “Corporate India is in a bit of a shock and is in a wait-and-watch state.”

On the other hand, Lloyd Mathias felt that there will likely be a significant upsurge in ad spending for news television during the April, May, and June quarter of FY 2024-25, potentially increasing by 15% to 20%. “This surge in advertising is partly due to the simultaneous focus on cricket, with the IPL and World Cup occurring in the same period,” he added.

At the same time, Mathias said, “The rise in advertising spending will be short-lived. The heightened interest due to the post-election cabinet formation and state governments forming in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh will wane by mid to late June. Subsequently, the focus will shift to World Cup cricket, including high-profile matches like India Vs Pakistan.”

Amit Sethia opined that ad spends will increase marginally by 5-7% towards the finale, since the moment will create more conversations amongst people, groups, societies truly represented by the TV medium and its viewers to celebrate the season and to analyze the reason brining more eye balls to the ad spenders in the process.

“Results not going the expected lines may be a good thing from viewership perspective,” noted Naresh Gupta, adding, “The political action now will be alive for a few more days, news channels will have stories that people would want to consume. The swearing in ceremony would be watched possibly by a higher number. I think the brands will remain invested for a little longer than expected.”

According to Yatnesh Pandey, “For any socio-political live events, news channel are prime beneficiary, but now multi-screen presence gives add-on revenues.” As far as ad spends are concerned, he said, “It depends upon brands’ genre targeting plans. I think post government formation, the news genre will not have that much impact viewing.”

The regional muscle

All experts were in agreement that regional news channels did very well these elections and had the upperhand.

Naresh Gupta noted, “In India, regional news channels have always fared better than English, primarily because their hold on local politics is much sharper and they know the local nuances. I do see the local news channels doing even better than they have been doing.”

Echoing the sentiments, Amit Sethia, too, said, “Regional news channels collectively have managed to reflect smartly the sentiments of their respective audience, their aspiration associated the biggest political event, and their perspective on the various developments led by their geographical leader, which has definitely given the channels a clear edge over the English counterparts proving ‘Ab ki baar, Kshetreeye samachar’.”

According to Lloyd Mathias, “Regional news channels will experience a significantly higher viewership boost compared to English news channels, especially in states with local elections coinciding with the Lok Sabha polls, such as Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Hindi news channels will also see a substantial increase in viewership.”

Shubho Sengupta believed that with some help from YouTube, regional news television will increase their reach greatly.

Yatnesh Pandey noted that while regional channels are carving their own niche, he didn’t see English news audience shifting to regional news.”

Along with news television, Mathias pointed out that the political impact of social media will also be substantial, with platforms like Instagram and influencers such as Dhruv Rathee drawing significant attention. “Consequently, a considerable portion of advertising will shift to digital and social media platforms,” he concluded.