Pushpa 2 may break all-time box office record

Authored by  Karan Taurani

Hindi gross box office collection (GBOC) is likely to grow 33% QoQ in Q3FY25 to INR 17bn backed by in-line performance of movies, Singham Again and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, and potential grossing of INR 5bn for Pushpa 2 (Hindi) alone. Theatre occupancy may reach 30% levels in Q3FY25E with 40% occupancy from Pushpa 2 in December. Robust content pipeline and optimistic CY25 augurs well for leading movie exhibitors.

Pushpa 2 set for lifetime GBOC of INR 10bn worldwide; Hindi GBOC to be at INR 5bn:

Initial feedback hints Pushpa 2 is likely to set record-breaking collection as its popularity can be sensed through 1) fan frenzy in core Hindi heartland -- Bihar during its trailer launch, 2) advance bookings was at INR 500mn on Day 1 itself (Bahubali: INR 450mn, Pathan: INR 230mn, and Jawan: INR 170mn). Pushpa 1 had grossed India GBOC of INR 4bn. With strong franchise recall, Pushpa 2 may break records and fetch lifetime India GBOC of INR 10bn while Hindi GBOC could do INR 5bn; this may also break the record of India GBOC of INR 12bn and INR 10bn of Bahubali 2 and KGF Chapter 2, respectively. Pushpa 2’s Day 1 GBOC may gross INR 2bn with contributions of INR 1bn and INR 0.8bn from Andhra Pradesh and Hindi states, respectively, while other southern states may gross INR 150-200mn. Overall first weekend GBOC may stand at INR 5bn; this can push theatre occupancy to more than 40% in December with higher footfalls.

Q3FY25 India Hindi GBOC may grow 33% QoQ to INR 17bn; occupancy to be ~30%:

As per our channel checks, India’s cinema footfalls saw a recovery during the Diwali month (November) with occupancy of ~25-27%, although it fell below 20% in October as most content scheduled for release was during November-December. Spend per head (SPH) has grown 5% YoY to date whereas average ticket price (ATP) has been flat and slightly lower due to the absence of Hollywood films and promotional offers. The recent Diwali releases, Singham Again, and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, performed well with GBOC of INR 2.9bn and INR 3.1bn, respectively while other movies, such as Devara Part 2 , Vicky Aur Vidya Balan ka Vo Video, Jigra and The Sabarmati Report, grossed Hindi GBOC worth INR 370mn, INR 380mn and INR 264mn, respectively. However, December is set to be a blockbuster month, supported by major India releases, such as Pushpa 2, Baby John and Sitaare Jameen Par. Overall, Q3FY25E occupancy is set to be in the range of 29-30% and Hindi GBOC may post 33% QoQ growth to INR 17bn. Further, CY25 pipeline remains busy with Hollywood films, such as Captain America: Brave New World, Jurassic World & Mickey 17 and domestic hits, such as Toxic & Rajasaab, and sequels of Hindi movies.

Healthy pipeline augurs well for movie exhibitors:

With 33% QOQ Hindi GBOC growth, PVR Inox (PVRINOX IN) overall GBOC (Hindi+non-Hindi) is set to grow 29% QoQ in Q3FY25 to INR 8bn. Its GBOC has sustained a 33% share in India’s Hindi GBOC during Q1-Q2FY25 and it is likely to sustain in Q3. India’s Q3FY25 Hindi GBOC is likely to be INR 17bn backed by robust content slate and PVR-INOX with a 33% share (Hindi) can gross INR 5.6bn, implying 38% QoQ growth in Hindi GBOC. Its non-Hindi (English + Regional) GBOC is likely to grow 10-15% QoQ, backed by movies, such as Mufasa: The Lion King, and Venom: The Last Dance. In the regional segment, Pushpa 2, Vettaiyan Amaran, and Devara Part 2 are set to bolster GBOC in Q3. Thus, total PVR-INOX GBOC is likely to touch INR 8bn with 29% QoQ growth in Q3FY25E.

Robust Q3 with optimistic CY25:

PVR-INOX (https://tinyurl.com/utj7xrax) is set to perform well with a healthy content pipeline and potential all-time grossing movie Pushpa 2. Improved occupancy may aid in growing ATP and SPH while ad revenue could see respite, given the release schedule of popular content. Further, CY25 builds hope with a slate of Hollywood movies and Hindi sequels with megastar movies. We recommend Buy with a TP of INR 1,950 based on 13.8x one-year forward EV/EBITDA (pre-IND-AS) (Dec-26E).

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